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In business, as in life, good leaders hope for the best and plan for the worst. There’s a reason that experts refer to the regular expansion and contraction of the economy as the business cycle.
商业中和日常一样，出色的领导抱最好的期望，做最坏的计划。专家们称经济周期是经济规律性的扩张和缩短是有缘由。
Even producers of the most recession|proof products—toiletries, beer, funeral services—need to consider how rising and falling consumer sentiment will affect their bottom line.
即便是最抗经济衰退的商品||洗漱用品、啤酒、殡葬服务||的提供商也需要考虑买家情绪的起落对他们底线的影响。
Of course, timing the next downturn is easier said than done. So as we head into a new year, we reached out to the Fast Company Impact Council—a leadership group of 200 founders, executives, and creatives—to gauge how some of the smartest and most innovative people in business are thinking about a possible recession.
当然，预测下一次衰退说起来容易做起来难。因此大家在步入新一年的时候，联系了《迅速公司》影响委员会，以便获悉商业中最聪明最富革新精神的一拨人是怎么样看待可能发生的经济衰退的。这个委员会是由200名开创者、实行官和创意官组成的领导集团。
about 4 in 10 respondents told us they expect the global economy in 2020 to perform about the same. But remarkably, nearly 45% predicted that the next 12 months would be worse for business. only 16% said that the global economy would be better.
大约四成的调查对象告诉大家，他们预计全球经济在2020年与今年表现相同。但让人惊讶的是，近45%的人预测，下面的12个月对商业愈加不利。只有16%的人说全球经济将转好。
Impact Council members were more like|minded about the timing of the next downturn. While 21% predicted a recession would hit in 2020, the majority said it would likely arrive in 2021, after the next presidential election. about 15% responded that the next recession would come in 2022. only 1 in 10 said the economy would continue to grow until 2023 or later.
影响委员会的成员在预测下一次经济衰退方面怎么看愈加一致。虽然有21%的人预测，2020年将遭到经济衰退的冲击，但大多数人觉得经济衰退或许会在2021年出现，也就是在下一次总统选举后。约15%的人回话说，下一次经济衰退会在2022年到来。只有一成的人说，经济将持续增长到2023年及之后。
